Macroeconomic Forecasts - Ukraine - JUNE 2015


Ukraine

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2017)
Indicator 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Population, mn 45.8 45.5 45.2 44.9 44.6 44.4 44.1
Nominal GDP, USDbn 162.0 175.3 176.6 96.8 86.0 85.4 85.7
GDP per capita, USD 3,535 3,850 3,903 2,154 1,926 1,925 1,944
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 5.2 0.3 0.0 -6.8 -5.2 0.6 2.4
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 7.0 -0.3 0.2 -1.3 -8.6 1.0 2.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 8.0 0.6 -0.3 12.1 40.0 7.0 5.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.6 -0.2 0.5 24.9 32.0 6.0 5.2
Central bank policy rate, % eop 7.75 7.50 6.50 12.50 19.50 15.50 8.50
Exchange rate UAH/USD, ave 7.98 8.08 8.16 12.01 24.00 26.00 27.00
Exchange rate UAH/USD, eop 8.04 8.05 8.24 15.82 24.00 26.00 28.00
Budget balance, UAHbn -23.1 -50.7 -63.1 -80.2 -63.5 -65.1 -59.9
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.8 -3.6 -4.3 -5.2 -3.1 -2.9 -2.5
Goods and services exports, USDbn 88.8 89.8 85.3 68.7 41.4 44.1 50.8
Goods and services imports, USDbn 99.0 104.5 100.8 74.1 43.3 44.5 50.7
Current account balance, USDbn -10.2 -14.8 -16.4 -5.3 -2.3 -0.9 -0.6
Current account balance, % of GDP -6.3 -8.4 -9.3 -5.5 -2.6 -1.1 -0.8
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 31.8 24.5 20.4 11.0 11.3 11.9 12.8
Import cover, months 3.9 2.8 2.4 1.8 3.1 3.2 3.0
Total external debt stock, USDbn 135.5 135.9 147.7 153.8 174.8 187.7 191.0
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 83.7 77.5 83.7 158.8 203.2 219.8 223.0
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 73.2 74.7 69.5 66.8 64.3 61.8 59.5
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -221.1 -238.4 -242.5 -226.6 -212.5 -211.4 -218.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 19.8 20.1 20.4 19.4 19.0 18.8 18.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 53.8 49.5 50.4 42.6 37.5 35.8 35.2