Political Risk Analysis - Russia Warning Highlights Risks of EU Deal - AUG 2014
Frontier Markets Monitor July 2014 / Moldova / Political Risk
Moscow has warned that Moldova will face "consequences" if it signs an Association Agreement with the EU as expected in June, and we note a downside risk to exports and remittance inflows...
Economic Analysis - Central Asian Growth Outperformer - AUG 2014
Frontier Markets Monitor July 2014 / Turkmenistan / Economy
Rising natural gas export revenues will continue to support strong economic growth in Turkmenistan in 2014 and 2015. While an end to petrol subsidies will likely constrain private consumption...
Risk Summary - Turkmenistan - AUG 2014
Frontier Markets Monitor July 2014 / Turkmenistan / Political Risk
Given increased clashes between Turkmen border guards and Taliban fighters on the country's Afghan border we have lowered the 'security/external threats' risk rating for Turkmenistan from 83.3 (out...
Risk Summary - Iraq - AUG 2014
Frontier Markets Monitor July 2014 / Iraq / Economy
Risks of a return to civil war in Iraq increased significantly as radical Islamist group ISIS took over the northern city of Mosul on June 10. The occupation of Mosul represents a threat to Iraq's...
Economic Analysis - Downside Risks To Growth Beyond 2014 - AUG 2014
Frontier Markets Monitor July 2014 / Fiji / Economy
While we have upgraded our real GDP growth forecast for 2014 to 3.2%, we believe that political risks and elevated oil prices will dampen the pace of economic expansion in 2015 after the boost from...
Economic Analysis - Successive Fiscal Deficits Ahead - AUG 2014
Frontier Markets Monitor July 2014 / Angola / Economy
Plateauing oil revenues, a narrow tax base and heavy public spending will see Angola's fiscal balance remain firmly in the red over the next few years. While persistent under-spending will keep the...